U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to travel to Beijing for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14–15, as part of planned bilateral talks that are expected to cover trade, technology restrictions, and broader regional and global concerns.
Allen Carlson, an associate professor of government at Cornell University and an expert on Chinese foreign policy, says the summit will be shaped less by what each leader wants than by the constraints both bring, and points to three issues to watch as the talks unfold.
Carlson says: “Both leaders will come into this summit with a great deal on their plates. Trump is bogged down in an unpopular war with Iran, a faltering U.S. economy, and sagging popularity. Xi is struggling with high levels of youth unemployment, weak domestic consumption, an ongoing faltering of real estate markets, and uncertainty about China's ability to continue to absorb the external shocks caused by the disruption of oil exports from the Middle East. His China also lacks legitimacy in Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.
“Three things stand out about the summit.
“First, both leaders are seeking a win from their meeting. Trump wants China to concede on economic issues to bolster the American economy and for Beijing to support the U.S. war effort. Xi is seeking a steadier American presence on the world stage and is particularly interested in gaining concessions from Washington regarding Taiwan.
“Second, the chance of anything of substance emerging from these talks is little more than zero. The very weakness of both leaders means that neither is in a position to make the compromises the other most needs.
“Third, it is precisely this lack of substance that defines the summit’s purpose. Absent any real content, both men can declare victory without sacrificing much of anything. The summit itself is then the thing. For Trump, it gives him a platform to look strong. For Xi, the American leader coming to Beijing seeking cooperation enhances China's growing reputation as a major global power.”
